Rafal Lorek, CEO of Port Development, has stated that house prices are unlikely to continue rising at the current rate of 5-6% annually unless there are cuts to interest rates. In an exclusive interview with ISBiznes.pl, Lorek discussed the future of the housing market and the factors influencing price trends.
“We have likely reached the peak for price increases per square meter,” Lorek said. “Without reductions in interest rates, I don’t foresee prices climbing by 5-6% per year. Additionally, I am highly confident—99%—that we won’t see any significant price declines. It’s unclear where such reductions would come from,” he added.
Lorek dismissed the notion of “supply manipulation” as a strategy to boost prices. He explained that the property development market is highly competitive and fragmented, making such manipulation unlikely. “The market is very competitive, which is beneficial. Larger developers might endure longer waiting periods, but smaller ones may not. For buyers, this is a favorable time due to the increased choice available compared to a year ago,” he noted.
Port Development has observed a decrease in traffic this year compared to the exceptional performance in 2023. Despite this, Lorek believes the current demand levels will persist. “There are two main obstacles to home buying at present,” he said. “Firstly, the high price of homes. In Warsaw, the average cost is around 11,000 PLN per square meter. For a 130-square-meter house, the total expense reaches approximately 1.5 million PLN, plus an additional 0.5 million PLN for furnishings. Even for affluent families, a mortgage payment of around 10,000 PLN per month is substantial. However, this obstacle should diminish over time as mortgage installments decrease and wages rise.”
Lorek also highlighted uncertainty surrounding government housing support programs as a second barrier.
Port Development, a boutique developer based in Warsaw, has been active since 2016 and has completed 45 single-family homes valued over 40 million PLN, including projects at the Blue Józefów and Blue Wawer estates.
Source: Port Development and ISBnews
