The Labour Market Index (LMI), which provides advance information on future changes in the volume of unemployment in July, remained at a level similar to that of a month ago (down 0.1 points). Thus, for the first time since the beginning of the year, there was no increase, meaning that unemployment stabilised at its current level. On the other hand, usually at this time of year we see a decline or at least no increase in the index for typically seasonal reasons.
On the labour market, we have been observing for a long time now a reduced demand for employees, accompanied by a moderate reduction in full-time positions in the business sector. At the same time, the labour supply is steadily shrinking for demographic reasons. Every year, more workers leave the labour market than enter it, while the stock of unemployed registered at the district labour offices has little chance of being employed. Indeed, a significant proportion of the unemployed are unqualified people (more than 30% of the total registered unemployed) and people over 45 years of age (more than 36% of the unemployed).
The registered unemployment rate decreased in June compared to May by 0.1 percentage points and broke through the 5% barrier, reaching 4.9%. After removing the impact of seasonal factors, the unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 5% since February this year.
At the moment, two of the seven components of the index have a downward effect on the rate, heralding a fall in the registered unemployment rate. Their impact is quite strong, especially when set against the five variables that predict an increase in the value of the indicator, and thus a worsening of the situation in the labour market.
Positive signals come mainly from the variables depicting the employability of the unemployed. On the one hand, the number of job offers at the disposal of the labour offices increased significantly. In June, compared to May, 28% more job offers were registered at district labour offices. At the same time, nearly 7% more unemployed people found work in June compared to May. However, these conclusions are not fully consistent with the results of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) business climate survey. In the survey of managers of industrial enterprises, the balances of questions concerning both the general financial situation of enterprises and forecasts for the size of changes in employment were virtually unchanged on a monthly basis. Both take a negative value at a two-digit level, indicating a pessimistic assessment of the current situation and, at the very least, a high caution in the creation of new jobs in the near future (an advantage of about 9 p.p. of the percentage of companies planning redundancies over those planning new hires).
The increase in employment opportunities (greater choice of job offers) as well as the increase in the outflow from unemployment to employment was higher than the inflow to unemployment (hence the recorded fall in the registered unemployment rate). Nevertheless, more than 12% more unemployed people registered with labour offices in June than in May this year. This inflow was translated into other statistics on the stock of unemployed: the number of unemployed dismissed for reasons attributable to the workplaces increased (by 1%). In addition, the volume of total unemployment benefits paid increased by 3%.
Source: BIEC
