The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecasts Poland’s GDP growth for this year at the level of 0.4% and its acceleration to 2.6% next year and to 2.9% in 2025. According to the OECD, consumer inflation in Poland will fall to 3.4% at the end of 2025.
Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.4% in 2023, as high inflation and restrictive monetary policies weaken domestic demand. The increase should be resuscitated to 2.6% in 2024 and increase to 2.9% in 2025 with a recovery and robust investment supported by EU Reconstruction and Resilience Funds (RRF). Basic inflation fell by half in 2023, but core inflation is falling more slowly due to the solid labour market. By the end of 2025, inflation is projected to reach 3.4%. The persistent inflation or additional fiscal spending poses a risk of rising inflation, while the escalation of the war in Ukraine could reduce economic growth, according to the report.
The economic recovery in Poland will be gradual, the OECD points out.
Curring inflation and the declining uncertainty associated with declining interest rates should support consumption growth, even if the labour market is less tight. The increase in investment should remain robust, supported by improving growth prospects and EU funds for recovery and resilience,” the report reads.
Average annual inflation will be 11.8% this year, 4.7% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. Core inflation will be 10.1%, 4.9%, 3.7%, 3.7% in 2023-2525, respectively.
According to the OECD, exports will fall by 2% this year and then increase by 1.1% in 2024 and by 3.3% in 2025. The dynamics of private consumption will be in the years 2023 -2025 respectively: -1.4% in this year, +2.6%, +3.1%.
The general government deficit will be 5.2% of GDP in 2023, and will decrease to 4.3% and 4.4% between 2024 and 2025. The general government debt will be 51.4% of GDP in 2023 and will increase to 54.1% and 56.4% respectively in 2024-2025.
Source: OECD and ISBnews
