Due to shrinking housing supply and growing demand, most provincial cities recorded an increase in average offer prices in Q3, and this was true regardless of the size of the apartment, according to an analysis of secondary market prices prepared by Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
“In Q3, one of the main problems of the housing market was the continued decline in the number of listings. When we consider all ads for apartments from the secondary market, which were published on Nieruchomosci-online.pl, we can see that the decline in the number of ads amounted to 14% q/q. In turn, compared to the beginning of the year, there are about 20% fewer ads. Smaller area apartments and unpriced offers disappear almost immediately. Unfortunately, in many local markets, new ads appear sporadically,” said Rafal Bienkowski of Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
In recent months, therefore, there has been a clash between falling supply and rising demand. According to a Nieruchomosci-online.pl survey of realtors conducted after Q3, greater interest in apartments was felt by more than 80% of real estate agents. However, this did not always translate into completed transactions. This means that the increase in interest in the real estate market was seen primarily on advertising portals. When we compare Q3 and Q2 of this year, the number of contacts with advertisers through Nieruchomosci-online.pl was more than 39% higher, and now reaches the level of 2021, which was then the result of almost zero interest rates, it stressed.
“In the third quarter, along with higher searcher activity, the average listing prices of second-hand apartments also increased. Many sellers raised their expectations, believing that they would be the ones approached by the beneficiaries of the ‘2% Safe Loan.’ However, it can’t be said that the higher prices were solely the result of higher demand brought about by BK2%. An important factor was precisely the shrinking supply. Sellers saw that there was a shortage of offers on the market, and that’s also why they raised prices. There are also those who based their valuations on speculation that properties would get more expensive, and thus the price spiral spiraled. Let’s not forget another important relationship: cheaper apartments disappear from the market the fastest, so that the more expensive ones remain on offer, and this also drives up the reading of average offer prices,” Bienkowski added.
The quarterly analysis of Nieruchomosci-online.pl traditionally includes apartments from the secondary market by number of rooms. The average listing price of studios increased in 15 of the 18 provincial cities, although the rate of change varied, ranging from 1 to 9% q/q. Average sellers’ expectations increased the most in Kielce (9%), Wroclaw (8.3%), Torun (7.6%) and Warsaw (6.8%). It is worth noting that the average price of a one-room apartment in the capital is slowly reaching PLN 17,000/sqm. The third quarter, however, brought a reduction in the average offer price in three provincial cities: Katowice, Olsztyn and Gorzów Wlkp., it was also indicated.
In the case of 2-room apartments, the increases in the rates at which owners listed their apartments ranged from 4 to 9% q/q, and affected 14 regional capitals. Average listing prices jumped the most in the largest cities: in Warsaw (9.1%), Krakow (8.7%) and Wroclaw (7.6%). In Q3, of all provincial cities, only Katowice, Gorzów Wlkp. (decreases), Szczecin and Zielona Gora (stabilization).
Increasing expectations of sellers also prevailed in the case of 3-room apartments. The largest increases in average offer rates were recorded in Toruń (9.9%), Krakow (9.2%) and Poznan (8.7%). In the remaining cities, it was most often 2-4% q/q. However, there were three cities where average prices hardly budged compared to Q2. This was the case of Gdansk, Olsztyn and Gorzow Wlkp. Interestingly, Gorzow Wlkp. is the only provincial city that did not see an increase in the average offer price in any of the second-hand apartments analyzed in Q3.
Source: Nieruchomosci-online.pl and ISBNews
