Housing prices in Poland’s six largest cities remained largely stable in September, with changes ranging from a 1.7% decrease to a 1.1% increase month-on-month (m/m), according to a report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). The supply of apartments in these cities has been steadily declining since April 2024.
“Apartment prices in Poland’s six largest cities have held steady for another month. However, September saw a more pronounced price increase in smaller and medium-sized towns compared to previous months,” the PIE stated. The report also noted that the sharp year-on-year (y/y) rise in housing prices, driven by significant increases in late 2023 and early 2024, is unlikely to continue through the end of 2024.
In the largest cities, Gdańsk and Kraków saw slight price drops in September, with prices falling by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, cities like Łódź, Warsaw, Wrocław, and Poznań experienced marginal increases, ranging from 0.2% to 1.1%. The average price per square meter (m²) in these cities stood at PLN 15,700.
In smaller towns, the trend was different. Cities with populations under 100,000 saw a 2.5% monthly increase in housing prices, while those with populations between 100,000 and 500,000 experienced a 1.7% rise. The average price per m² in these mid-sized cities was PLN 9,200, while in smaller towns it was PLN 8,000.
Since April, housing price fluctuations in the largest cities have been slow. In Warsaw, Kraków, Gdańsk, and Łódź, prices in September were at the same levels as in April, while Wrocław and Poznań saw a modest 2% increase over the same period.
“The most significant price increases occurred earlier in 2024, which is why the year-to-date rise in prices is most noticeable when viewed over the past nine months,” said Tomasz Mądry, a senior analyst at PIE’s sustainable development team. “In Wrocław and Poznań, prices have increased by over 5% since January 2024, while in Warsaw they rose by 4.6%. Meanwhile, Kraków, Gdańsk, and Łódź saw gains of around 2%.”
However, the growth rate of year-on-year price increases has slowed across all six major cities. In Warsaw, housing prices still recorded an annual increase of over 15%, but Kraków saw a decline in its y/y price growth, dropping from 16.7% to 11.9% in September. PIE predicts that by the end of 2024, only Warsaw and Gdańsk will see double-digit price increases.
Supply Decline Continues in Major Cities
The supply of available apartments in the six largest cities has been declining each month since April. By September, the average number of new listings per week had dropped by 26% compared to April’s peak. However, medium and small towns saw a rebound in supply for the first time since March 2024, with the total number of apartments available for sale in September rising by 11% year-on-year. The largest supply increases were in medium-sized towns, while larger cities saw an 8% rise.
The gap between housing supply in the largest and mid-sized towns has narrowed to 12%, the smallest margin in over a year, according to PIE.
The Polish Economic Institute is a public think tank with a long history, dating back to 1928. It focuses on research in areas such as macroeconomics, sustainable development, energy, and the global economy.
Source: PIE and ISBnews
