The March projection of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is likely to confirm the so-called “soft landing” scenario for the Polish economy. In Q4 2022, GDP dynamics will be significantly influenced by investments, Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Cezary Kochalski assessed in an interview.
“The increase in investments last year was a positive surprise. These were investments mainly in larger companies. Industry proved to be relatively resilient last year. The situation was similar in Germany. I don’t have a fully recognized investment structure yet, but it is clear that a positive scenario is beginning to reveal itself in large companies. A scenario that fits into what has been called a soft landing. The Council’s so-called ‘soft landing’ was signaled in November. Evidently there is a weakening of the economy, but there are also positive signals. Attention was drawn to investments in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the projection, we had 4.6% growth for 2022, while the CSO reported that it was 4.9%. Evidently, the slowdown scenario is confirmed, although there is also positive data and information. So this landing may indeed be soft. The March projection should confirm this,” Kochalski said.
As reported by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) in a quick estimate of the data, Gross Domestic Product (constant average prices of the previous year, not seasonally adjusted) grew by 2% y/y in Q4 2022, compared to 3.6% y/y growth in the previous quarter. The market consensus was for 2.2% GDP growth in last year’s Q4. Q4 2022. Seasonally adjusted GDP (at constant prices with the 2015 reference year) contracted by 2.4% in real terms compared to the previous quarter, and was 0.3% higher than a year ago.
Source: ISbnews
