The dynamics of retail sales growth (in constant prices) in September this year. (4.1% YoY) was slightly lower than assumed by the market consensus (4.5%) and signals a slowdown in consumer demand in the environment of high inflation. Economists estimate that the economy will record GDP growth of 3-3.9% y / y in Q3, against an increase of 5.5% y / y in Q2, which probably allows to avoid a technical recession in Poland in Q2 and Q3.
As reported today by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), retail sales (in constant prices) increased by 4.1% y / y in September 2022, a decrease of 2.8% in monthly terms was recorded. After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, retail sales at constant prices in September 2022 were 0.9% higher than in August this year. Construction and assembly production (realized by construction enterprises employing more than 9 people) increased in September this year. by 0.3% y / y In monthly terms, it increased by 3.5%.
Poor consumer sentiment shows once again a limited propensity to purchase durable goods (cars: -2.9% y / y; furniture, electronics, household appliances: -4.3% y / y), the decline in retail sales in the category of “fuels” (-20.4% YoY in September against -14.2% in August).
High sales of clothing and footwear (+ 25.2% y / y) showed the influence of weather factors. In the structure of retail sales, good sales of basic goods, food (+ 7.8% y / y), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (+ 11.1% y / y), incl. as a result of the influx of war refugees from Ukraine.
As indicated by economists, both in the case of retail sales and the construction sector, negative dynamics may appear at the turn of the year.
The slowdown in construction and assembly production in September to 0.3% y / y from 6.1% y / y in August is described by some economists as a “rock collapse”.
The market consensus assumed an increase of 6.5% YoY in September in the case of construction and assembly production. As analysts indicate, the high growth rate of construction and assembly output in the “building construction” category (8.7% y / y in September against 25.7% in August) is the result of the termination of private investments, especially in housing, which started in the previous quarters.
Below are the most interesting comments from analysts:
“We estimate that in 3Q 2022 GDP growth exceeded 3% y / y, with a clearly lower contribution from consumption than observed in 1H 2022. This means a slowdown in GDP growth, which in 2Q 2022 amounted to 5.5% y / y (according to unrecorded data), but we still manage to avoid a technical recession (second consecutive decline in GDP q / q),” chief economist of ING Bank Śląski Rafał Benecki, economists Adam Antoniak and Piotr Popławski
“Based on the complete set of data for the third quarter, we estimate that GDP slowed down to 3% y / y. This most likely means avoiding the so-called technical recession (although it does take place in industry and construction itself), but it should not be any consolation for anyone. the economy is slowing down,” Bank Pekao expert Piotr Bartkiewicz.
“Today’s data on retail sales and construction and assembly production, together with the data on industrial production, employment and average wages in the enterprise sector, released yesterday, signal a low probability of a technical recession in Poland in Q2 and Q3 this year, i.e. a seasonally adjusted decline. GDP for at least two quarters in a row. Consequently, they support our GDP growth forecast in Q3 (3.9% y / y compared to 5.5% in Q2),” senior economist Credit Agricole Bank Polska Jakub Olipra.
Source: GUS and ISBnews
