Consumer inflation this year will amount to 11.8% annually (compared to 5.1% last year), and in December 2022 it will reach the level of 11.9% y/y, forecasts the Institute of Economic Forecasts and Analyzes (IPAG). According to IPAG, interest rates will increase this year by about 300 bp.
In the first quarter of 2022, the prices of all major groups of consumer goods and services increased. Even the prices of clothing and footwear, which had been a group recording price drops for many years, increased. The prices of transport increased the most (by 17.1%), including fuel for private means of transport by 23%, use of a flat or house and energy carriers (by 15.65%), restaurants and hotels (by 11.5%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (by 8.7%). were recorded despite the reduced excise duty and VAT on certain goods.In the opinion of IPAG, the average inflation level in 2022 will be 11.8%, and its value in December will amount to 11.9%. lower, but still significantly above the level of the NBP’s inflation target: the average annual inflation will amount to 9.8%, and the December inflation 6.5%, according to the Institute’s quarterly report.
The inflation level at the end of March was 11% y / y, and according to preliminary data (the so-called quick estimate) in April it was 12.3%, which is also the highest monthly level in the 21st century, the Institute emphasized.
According to IPAG, “interest rates in Poland will increase by about 3 percentage points in 2022”, the report also stated.
Today, a meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is scheduled to bring – according to market consensus – the second hike by 100 bp in a row. After seven monthly increases, the main interest rate increased by a total of 440 bp to 4.5%.
Source: IPAG and ISBnews
