Assuming that there will be no gas supplies under the Jamal contract from Russia by the end of this year, the conservatively estimated gas supply gap will amount to a maximum of 5.6 bcm, according to the calculations of PKO Bank Polski analysts. This shortage could be covered by gas stocks, spot transactions as well as potential additional imports.
Assuming the lack of gas supplies from Russia in Q2-Q4 2022, the conservatively estimated supply gap would amount to approx. in Q3 and 3.6 bcm in Q4 Given that the coldest 1/3 of Q2 has passed, the estimated total supply gap is a maximum of 5.6 bcm. This shortage could be covered by gas reserves accumulated by the company and the above-mentioned spot transactions. Slovakia, Latvia, the Czech Republic and Germany, spot LNG purchases are also possible, according to ” Macro Focus ” report from PKO BP.
“The combined transmission capacity of the newly built infrastructure and numerous long-term LNG contracts should allow Poland to replace the current gas imports from the East (mainly from Russia) and to meet the growing domestic demand for natural gas from households, industry and the energy sector. be better prepared to give up Russian gas than other EU countries on average, said analysts.
They emphasized that thanks to the implementation of the energy strategy, in previous years Poland had diversified its gas import infrastructure, liberalized the gas market and integrated it with other EU countries.
The most important and strategic projects were: 1) the LNG terminal in Świnoujście, which started operating in 2016, and 2) the Baltic Pipe connecting Poland directly with gas deposits in Norway and the North Sea, which should start gas transmission on October 1, 2022. In this strategy, Poland it also built new interconnections with Slovakia (2022) and Lithuania (2022), the report states.
In order to ensure independence from gas imports from Russia, Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) has so far signed numerous long-term contracts for the supply of LNG gas, which will guarantee the supply of 12 billion m3 from 2023. According to analysts, these supplies will exceed the capabilities of the LNG terminal in Świnoujście, but the company may potentially use the spare capacity of the terminal in Klaipeda, Lithuania, or redirect deliveries to another location, as a significant part of it are FOB (designated port of loading) contracts.
The Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, which is to connect the Norwegian segment of the North Sea with Poland, is the last stage of the process of diversifying gas supplies to Poland. The pipeline is to start operating in October 2022, initially with a limited capacity of 2 billion m3 per year, but in 2023 it will be raised to the target level 10 billion m3. PGNiG can transport gas via this route from its own deposits in Norway, but it will probably also sign additional contracts for significant gas supplies with Scandinavian suppliers. The company has already signed a contract with the Danish company Ørsted for the supply of 6.4 billion m3 of gas annually in 2023 -2028.
Poland has an infrastructure for storing 3.2 billion m3 of gas, which is currently 76% full (as of 9:00 AM, April 27, 2022). In Q4 2021, PGNiG reported that it had reserves of 3 billion m3 of gas (both in Poland and abroad), it was also recalled.
PKO BP also indicates that the entity structure of natural gas consumption in Poland is quite diverse. About 1/3 of the demand for gas comes from the household sector, the rest goes to other industrial customers (approx. 20%), nitrogen plants (15%), heat and power plants, refineries and the petrochemical industry, as well as trade and other services (10% each).
Under the Yamal contract, approximately 9 billion m3 of gas was supplied to Poland annually. The average annual gas consumption in Poland is 20 billion m3.
Source: PKO Bank Polski and ISBnews
