The central forecast for average annual inflation, in a survey conducted by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) among 21 experts in March, amounts to 9.8% for 2022, 7.6% for 2023 and 4.6% for 2024. Experts’ forecasts suggest the possibility of a marked decline in average annual inflation in 2024.
In the previous edition of the survey, the central forecast was 7.4% for 2022 and 4.4% for 2023.
In the latest round of the survey, the experts of AM NBP clearly raised the forecasts of the average annual CPI inflation for 2022-2023 compared to the forecasts from December 2021. Typical scenarios of inflation forecasts for 2022-2023 (i.e. 50% probability ranges for aggregated forecasts) in the current survey are clearly higher than the typical scenarios formulated for the same years in the previous survey (these ranges do not overlap.) Typical scenarios for 2022 are between 8.5% and 11.1%, while those for 2023 are between 5.9% and 9.3% Central forecasts for these years are 9.8% and 7.6%, respectively Currently, experts are sure that in 2022-2023 CPI inflation will be above the upper limit for deviations from the target inflation rate of the NBP (3.5%), according to the report.
The probability of inflation below the upper limit for deviations from the NBP inflation target in 2024 is 33% (compared to 6% in 2023). The central forecast of inflation for 2024 (4.6%) is more than twice lower than the forecast for 2022. Also, the typical scenarios for 2024 are clearly lower (between 2.9% and 6.3%) than the corresponding ranges for 2022, also reported.
The last round of the NBP Macroeconomic Survey was held on March 9-22, 2022. It was attended by 21 experts representing financial institutions, research and analysis centers as well as employee and employer organizations.
Source: NBP and ISBnews
