By the end of this week, the average level of Pb95 gasoline and diesel prices may increase to PLN 6.2 / l and PLN 6.5 / l, respectively, and further increases should be expected next week , even up to PLN 6.5 / l for petrol and PLN 6.9 / l for diesel, according to the market commentary of BM Reflex analysts.
Below is the market comment of BM Reflex:
PLN 6.14 / l and PLN 6.38 / l are the average domestic prices of Pb95 gasoline and diesel as of March 3, 2022. By the end of this week, the average level of Pb95 gasoline and diesel oil prices may increase to PLN 6.2 / l and 6 5 PLN / l. The average autogas prices are approaching the level of PLN 3 / l.
Next week, unfortunately, we will face further increases in fuel prices. The average price of Pb95 gasoline may reach the level of PLN 6.5 / l, and of diesel – PLN 6.9 / l. At some petrol stations, we can, unfortunately, see diesel prices above PLN 7 / l. We will continue to observe large, regional differentiation in fuel prices on the market. In the short term, we may not observe further increases in fuel prices, although the situation is very volatile and dynamic.
On a weekly basis, wholesale diesel prices increased by PLN 0.66 / l net, while gasoline prices increased by PLN 0.22 / l net. The increase in fuel prices is the result of the escalation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and thus more expensive crude oil and the weakening of the Polish zloty.
The prices of the May series of contracts for Brent crude oil fell to the area of $ 109 / bbl after Thursday’s increase to the region of USD 120 / bbl. Brent crude oil is trading around $ 110 / bbl on Friday morning.
Between February 23 and March 3, spot prices for Brent crude rose by approximately $ 20 / bbl to $ 119.81 / bbl on March 3. In the same period, Urals crude oil prices collected from Primorsk fell less than $ 1 / bbl to $ 88.68 / bbl. Dyfernecjał Brent / Urals achieves historical records. Arab oil is gaining ground.
According to the data of the International Energy Agency, in December Russia exported about 5 million bbl / d of crude oil and 2.9 million bbl / d of finished products, including 1.1 million bbl / d of diesel oil. Europe (OECD countries in Europe) imported about 3 million bbl / d of crude oil and 1.3 million bbl / d of finished products, which accounted for over 30% of European imports. The largest single recipient of crude oil from Russia was China – 1.6 million bbl / d.
Nearly 80% of Russian crude oil and finished products are exported by sea. At present, it is estimated that from 2.5 to even 5 million bbl / d of Russian crude oil and finished products (30-65% of exports) have problems finding recipients due to sanctions, problems with financing and insuring transactions, carriers and on the basis of unity with Ukraine. Ultimately, this may account for over 70% of Russian exports. As a result, Russian tankers are returning to their ports and Russian companies cancel tenders for the supply of crude oil and fuels as there are no bidders willing to bid. The Asian market is also starting to avoid Russian crude oil. There is no official total embargo on the supply of Russian energy products. This idea is not supported by neither the USA nor Germany, where the share of Russian crude oil and fuels in domestic consumption is around 35%.
Source: BM Reflex and ISBnews
