Biuro Informacji Kredytowej (BIK) forecasts that the value of mortgage loan sales will drop by 9.8% y / y to PLN 80 billion in 2022, informed BIK President Mariusz Cholewa.
“In the value of housing loans granted, we expect a 9.8% y / y decline in 2022 compared to 2021. We estimate the sale of mortgage loans at a high level of PLN 80 billion, higher than before the pandemic and higher than during the last housing boom in the years 2005-2008,” said Cholewa.
In 2022, BIK does not plan to break any new records in the value of housing loans. This will be influenced by several factors. The raised interest rates will weaken the creditworthiness of people applying for financing from banks. The scope and scale of the burden on households is also unknown, as a result of rising costs related to high inflation, it was noted.
Another negative factor affecting household income may result from changes in the tax system. Some of the better-earning taxpayers will lose due to tax changes, which will limit their creditworthiness.
The likely stabilization of prices in the real estate market will result in a lower growth rate of an average housing loan, the material shows.
“We have been observing a systematic decline in the number of people applying for a housing loan since April 2021. This phenomenon may even worsen in 2022 as a result of interest rate increases, an increase in the cost of living and the possible non-balancing of these negative aspects with an increase in household disposable income. , in the event of a stabilization or decline in prices on the real estate market, the average value of the loan applied for will cease to grow dynamically. The value of lending is directly dependent on the number of loans granted and the value of the loan granted. If there are fewer applicants and the average loan amount is stable, then the loan action will weaken,” summed up Cholewa.
Throughout 2021, banks and credit unions granted housing loans in the amount of PLN 88.69 billion (+ 40.1%), which was a historically record result.
Source: BIK and ISBnews
