November data on employment dynamics in the enterprise sector were slightly higher in the case of employment and significantly higher in the case of wages, which exceeded the level of 6,000 for the first time in history. zloty. According to economists, next year’s wage growth will be burdened with the high base from 2021, but in the conditions of a strongly accelerating economy, but also low labor supply and rising inflation, wages will continue to grow at a rapid pace.
According to the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the average wage in the enterprise sector (employing more than 9 people) in November this year. increased by 9.8% y / y, while employment in enterprises increased by 0.7% y / y. In monthly terms, the average salary increased by 1.8% and amounted to PLN 6,022.49. On the other hand, employment in enterprises increased by 0.2% in monthly terms and amounted to 6,363.7 thousand. people.
As reported by the Central Statistical Office, in November 2021, the increase in the average monthly gross wages and salaries in the enterprise sector compared to the previous month was caused, among others, by quarterly bonuses, bonuses on the Miner’s Day, as well as annual and discretionary bonuses, salary increases and retirement gratuities (which, apart from base salaries, are also included in the salary components). The highest increase in salaries compared to the previous month was recorded in the section “Mining and mining” (by 34.1%), where the average gross salary was PLN 10,436.85 (a month earlier, PLN 7,785.25) and in “Electricity and gas production and supply, steam and hot water “(by 16.9%).
Economists indicate that the high wage growth in November compared to the October data resulted from the very high wage growth in mining (over 34.1% y / y) in the generation and supply of electricity, gas, steam and hot water (16.9% y / y). y / y) and calendar effects – i.e. expiry of the negative effect of the number of working days in October (and thus the so-called movable part of remuneration).
They emphasize that “the high wage growth in 2021 was favored by the low reference bases from 2020, and this effect will expire in 2022.”
Analysts emphasize the growing risk of a wage-price spiral in 2022. The labor market reacts with a long delay to economic processes, however, the scale of its reconstruction in response to the recession caused by the pandemic is currently significant. Analysts expect that in such conditions, the Monetary Policy Council (PP), with rising inflation, will raise interest rates at the next meeting in January 2022 to avoid the second-round effects.
Below are the most interesting comments from analysts:
“It is difficult to say today whether today’s high wage growth is already a wage-price spiral, or earlier bonus payments before taxes for some employees increase. However, we include the risk of a wage-price spiral in our forecasts of inflation and NBP hikes for 2022. In our opinion, the target rate is 3% or more “- senior economist Piotr Popławski and chief economist Rafał Benecki of ING Bank Śląski
“In December, with lower reference bases being less important (and in the case of wages even at a higher base), we expect a stabilization of the dynamics of average employment and a decline towards 8.0% y / y wage dynamics” – chief economist of Bank Ochrony Środowiska (BOŚ) Łukasz Tarnawa
“In our opinion, with the tense situation on the labor market, the wage growth rate may accelerate to around 10% y / y in the coming months. Better-than-expected data for November may indicate a growing risk of a price-wage spiral in the economy. therefore they increase the likelihood of decisive MPC moves at the next meetings, “PKO BP analysts.
Source: ISBnews
