CPI inflation will reach at the end of this year. 6.5% y / y, Goldman Sachs analysts expect. They forecast that the decline in inflation next year will be only gradual.
Taking into account the recent changes in commodity prices, we expect inflation to be + 6.5% y / y by the end of the year. Moreover, the media price hikes at the beginning of next year, as well as the prolonged pressure from the inflation of durable goods, suggest that the widely anticipated fall in inflation next year will only be gradual, and inflation is likely to stay above the target for a long time. We forecast inflation to average + 4.1% next year, according to a report from Goldman Sachs analysts.
Economists maintained the baseline scenario for further interest rate hikes and expect further moves in this regard this year.
Nevertheless, mixed news from the central bank introduces considerable uncertainty to the development of monetary policy in the near future, announced Goldman Sachs analysts.
The bank’s forecast for core inflation is an increase to 4.2% y / y in September against 3.9% y / y recorded in August this year.
Source: Goldman Sachs and ISBnews
