April’s retail sales and industrial production results were heavily burdened by last year’s base effect as the lockdown affected more industries and hit the industry harder. Despite the base effect, the industry performance exceeded the pre-pandemic level, which – according to some economists – may become permanent and bring it to significantly higher levels, while increasing the dynamics of GDP growth throughout 2021.
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) yesterday, announced that the sold production of industrial enterprises increased by 44.5% y / y in April 2021. In monthly terms, a decline of 9.2% was recorded. In the period of January-April this year, sold production of industry was 15.5% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year, when a decrease of 5.6% was recorded. Retail sales (in constant prices) increased by 21.1% y / y in April 2021. In monthly terms, a decrease by 7.7% was recorded. According to the Central Statistical Office, the share of online sales in retail sales (current prices) increased to 10.8% in April 2021 from 9.5% of total sales in March this year. The value of internet sales increased by 6.2% m / m.
Some economists believe that there is a risk that supply factors (shortages of raw materials, components) and rising costs (raw materials, materials and labor) may inhibit the further upward trend in industrial production. As previously reported by the Central Statistical Office, producer prices increased in April this year. by 5.3% y / y, in monthly terms they increased by 0.5%.
At the same time – according to analysts – there will be a shift in the direction of industrial production towards those categories of industry that performed worse in the previous months – including the production of investment goods due to the reviving domestic and global economy.
While consumption – according to economists – will be the main driving force of the economy this year, the results of retail sales will weaken later in the year – according to some analysts – due to the shift in demand for services and slower than before the pandemic growth of household income.
According to most economists, data from industry and retail sales in April do not change the outlook for domestic monetary policy.
Below are the most interesting comments from analysts:
“Calculations indicate that the retail sales price index increased in April this year to 3.8% y / y from 1.6% y / y in March. This is the highest level in many years. These data indicate that the economy is not only with acceleration of the growth of prices of services, but also with the accelerating growth of prices of goods “- chief economist of Bank Pocztowy Monika Kurtek
“The level of industrial production in Poland, despite a slight decline in April, has been above the pre-pandemic level since October last year. Manufacturing companies have adapted their production processes relatively quickly to the epidemic situation. They are also not directly affected by administrative constraints. They are benefiting from the rebound in the global economy and shifting consumer demand for goods from unavailable services “- chief economist of ING Bank Rafał Benecki, senior economist of ING Bank Dawid Pachucki
“The very good result of industrial production in April suggests that the upward trend in industry may be higher than we previously expected (56% y / y after March’s industrial production data). If this is confirmed in the data (released in June) for May (production growth of 30% y / y), this would mean that throughout the year, GDP growth may be higher than we currently estimate (closer to 6% than we currently forecast 5.1% in 2021) “- PKO Bank Polski analysts.
Source: ISBnews
