The number of companies that will file for bankruptcy in 2021 will increase y / y, but households will keep their debts on time, according to Artur A. TrzebiĆski, adviser to the board of the Financial Companies Association (ZPF).
According to TrzebiĆski, the expected increased scale of bankruptcy this year is evidenced by, inter alia, results from January 2021 when compared to the same period in 2020.
“While in 2020 entrepreneurs could use various types of co-financing and their own funds, in 2021 they do not have so many options. Limited possibilities can be seen in the number of restructuring proceedings, which in January 2021 alone amounted to 112 compared to only 30 a year earlier. Taking into account the restructuring proceedings started in 2020 and newly notified proceedings, it can be assumed that the number of bankruptcies in companies in 2021 will be higher than a year earlier, ” said TrzebiĆski.
“And, paradoxically, an increased number of bankruptcies will be observed in the second half of the year, when the economy is planned to be defrosted,” he added.
He explained that this would be mainly caused by the long process of bankruptcy and a large number of restructuring processes started, starting from the second quarter of 2020.
“You can expect bankruptcy of loan companies that are required to apply reduced limits on non-interest costs in consumer loans, and generate much lower income than before. Not only does it hinder their functioning, but also may lead to a lack of capital for further operations” – he added.
He also added that in 2020, 587 bankruptcies of companies were published in the Court and Economic Monitor, and similar results were also recorded in previous years. In turn, the number of restructuring proceedings in 2020 almost doubled compared to the previous year and amounted to 800 at the end of the year.
According to the ZPF expert, in 2021 the average length of payment delays in the enterprise sector will remain, which last year was 48 days.
“The growing optimism of consumers and entrepreneurs will translate into an inflow of cash to companies, but what will happen with this money is important – whether it will be used to pay old or new liabilities, or will be kept as a reserve. also expected in 2021. The average length of the delays is 48 days and this figure should be maintained in 2021. ” – He said.
He added that the scale and form of support for enterprises from public funds remains the unknown for companies.
“It is difficult to predict for how long the economy will be open and for how long the companies will be able to operate. The matter is made difficult by the fact that funds from the reconstruction fund cannot be taken into account, because it is not known when, who and on what terms will receive support” – he said.
“Enterprises must focus on current operations and adapting to dynamically changing conditions. And these conditions do not encourage entrepreneurs to pay their debts on time” – explained TrzebiĆski.
When asked about the projected financial situation of households in 2021, TrzebiĆski assessed that natural persons should not have problems with paying their liabilities on time in 2021.
“Taking into account the possible opening of the economy in the middle of the year, the stable situation on the labor market and the possibility of obtaining credit holidays, it can be assumed that households will maintain the timely payment of debts” – he said.
He added that the good situation in terms of timely payment of receivables does not mainly result from the improvement in the financial situation of households or changes in payment habits, but from the tightening of the lending policy of banks and loan companies.
According to the Association of Financial Companies, the financial situation of Poles at the end of 2020 was better than in the third quarter.
“At the end of 2020, approx. 75% of respondents covered by the ZPF survey on the situation on the consumer finance market had no problems with regular servicing of their liabilities, while a quarter earlier this percentage was 66%,” said TrzebiĆski.
He added that the majority of respondents 52% declared trouble-free service of liabilities in 2021.
