Despite the uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic, retail sales have been slowly recovering (+ 0.7 percent y-o-y in July) and some countries have seen a return of consumer confidence, according to Savills. In July, total retail trade was above last year’s levels in Norway (13.8 percent), Ireland (9.1 percent), the Netherlands (6 percent), France (5.8 percent), Denmark (5.6 percent) and Germany (3.5 percent). E-commerce has surged across Europe during the lockdown, fast becoming the safest way of shopping and the only channel for buying non-essential goods during this time. Despite the penetration rates falling away slightly since a peak in early summer, online sales in the UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are expected to be close to €325bn, a rise of 31 percent y-o-y, pushing up their average share of total retail sales to 16.2 percent. The same forecast predicts that the average online retail penetration will stand at 24.3 percent by the end of 2021, which will be five years’ worth of progress in one year alone, according to Savills.
