The Bulgarian economy will shrink by 7.2% this year before recovering by 6% next year according to the European Commission’s latest economic forecast. In February, before the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the EC had predicted growth of 2.9 percent for the year, a slight decrease from the 3.4 percent rise it made in 2019. Its current outlook assumes gradual economic recovery beginning in the second half of 2020 along with the removal of restrictive measures.
The EC warns that the hardest hit sectors in terms of employment will be in the services sector, where disruption is expected to continue for the longest time. In 2019, unemployment was at 4.2 percent. Nominal wage growth after years of substantial growth is expected to weaken to 3.5 percent in 2020 and 2.25 percent in 2021.
