Banks granted a total of 57.1 thousand, according to the AMRON-SARFiN report, new housing loans in Q1 this year, ie by 6.35% q / q. Their value reached PLN 17.94 billion, which means an increase by 9.17% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Compared to Q1 last year, these values turned out to be higher by 1.27% (number of loans) and 7.93% (their value), respectively. The average value of a newly granted housing loan increased to PLN 313 thousand.
“The observed increases were supported by the same factors that we defined after a short ‘covid’ shock in the second quarter of 2020 – on the one hand, a historically cheap mortgage, and on the other hand, no alternative to investing capital. credit, as well as those who have significant savings. A new, though expected, factor shaping the situation in the housing market environment is the rapidly rising level of inflation. On the one hand, rising inflation will certainly stimulate the demand for real estate and indirectly for mortgage loans, on the other hand, it may bring closer the prospect of an increase in interest rates by the MPC, which could have a significant impact on the situation on the housing market,” said Jacek Furga, president of the Center for Banking Law and Information and chairman of the Housing Real Estate Financing Committee of the Polish Bank Association, Jacek Furga.
The total amount of debt under contracted housing loans for the first time in history exceeded the level of PLN 480 billion. The banking sector currently supports nearly 2.5 million housing loans. The quality of servicing of housing loans by borrowers remains at a stable level, with the share of non-performing loans at the level of 2.54% unchanged in relation to the situation from the previous quarter as well as to the situation before the pandemic, but with the observed systematic, though slight, shifting of the problem from loans in PLN, the quality of which is systematically improving (2.02%) to the deteriorating quality of Swiss franc loans (4.67%).
At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the average offer margin of a mortgage loan (in the amount of PLN 300 thousand, at the LtV level of 75%, granted for a period of 25 years) amounted to 2.21%, i.e. less by 0.07 percentage points. compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. Compared to the end of the corresponding period of 2020, the average mortgage margin was 0.5 percentage point higher.
The average interest rate on a model mortgage loan at the end of the first quarter of 2021 was 2.42%, i.e. 0.07 percentage points. less q / q and 0.93 percentage points y / y.
Despite further loosening of banking requirements and a systematic increase in the average value of a housing loan, the share of loans with a LtV ratio exceeding 80% has been consistently declining for a year. This means that those applying for a loan have their own contribution exceeding the 20% required by recommendation S. The share of loans with a higher LtV is higher. than 80% in the first quarter of 2021 was 31.17%, which in relation to the first quarter of 2020 means a decrease by 9.9 percentage points.
On the other hand, a dynamic annual increase was recorded by the share of the Warsaw market in the volume of loans granted. In the first quarter of 2021, this percentage was 53.29%, i.e. more by 14.1 percentage points. at the cost of a drop by 5.51% percentage points. share of smaller towns outside the studied group of the largest agglomerations.
Investors in the housing market remain active. After the record-breaking year 2020 in the first quarter of 2021, the data of the Central Statistical Office (GUS) indicate a significant increase – in relation to the first quarter of 2020 – in the number of started construction sites (by 21.19%), the number of construction permits obtained (by 41.95% ) and the number of dwellings completed (by 7.41%), was underlined in the announcement.
In most of the locations studied, the increase in the average transaction price for 1 sqm of usable floor space continued. The highest increase, reaching 5.37%, was recorded in Kraków. Average price increases exceeding 3% occurred in the Katowice agglomeration, Wrocław, Gdańsk and Łódź. On the other hand, in Warsaw, the average price of 1 sqm in the first quarter of 2021 was PLN 10,073 / sqm and was 0.08% lower than in the previous quarter. However, in relation to the corresponding period of 2021, it meant an increase by 9.16%, with significantly higher price increases in the Katowice agglomeration and Gdańsk – by 11.64% and 10.51%, respectively.
“The decline in rents on the private rental market, which had been observed for three quarters of the year, continued, although a slight slowdown was noticeable. The deepest decline was recorded in Łódź – by 2.45% compared to the rent recorded a quarter earlier. In other locations, the falls did not exceed 1 percentage point. It will probably be necessary to improve the situation and possibly reverse the downward trend in rents.
Source: ISBnews and AMRON-SARFiN
