According to experts, Czech exports exceed expectations and, despite another wave of tightening anti-epidemic measures, are doing well. There is thus hope that from the second quarter of this year it could grow year-on-year. However, the optimistic outlook is overshadowed, for example, by a significant increase in the cost of container transport or raw materials. This follows from the so-called export index, which is being prepared by Raiffeisenbank and the Association of Exporters.
According to Raiffeisenbank chief economist Helena Horská, the conclusion of a trade agreement between the European Union and Britain at the last minute last year, changes in the US administration and unexpectedly solid demand from Germany offer a great chance for Czech exports to significantly exceed last year’s level from the beginning of the pandemic.
“As in Germany and the Czech Republic, despite the still restrictive measures, exports are reviving by passing through Germany to China and the US, where German exporters register the strongest demand. According to the export index, it has at least a theoretical chance of overcoming growth rates in recent seven years, “said Horská. She added that the pace from the beginning of the exchange rate commitment will not match and it will still be time before the values of Czech exports break old historical records.
According to the vice-president of the Association of Exporters, Otto Daňek, the current optimistic numbers give the apparent hope that it will be good from April. However, according to him, the comparison base for last year’s fourth month is the lowest in the last ten years. Compared to the average for the years 2010 to 2019, it is lower by about 24 percent, compared to the best April result from 2019, the comparison base deteriorated by about 38 percent.
“The light at the end of the tunnel with government restrictions is not shining yet, state border crossings are becoming even more complicated, raw materials are becoming relatively more expensive and container transport is brutally, almost an order of magnitude more expensive. In addition, delivery dates to Asia are currently open from March. optimism should have been very mild, “he added.
According to the Czech Statistical Office, Czech exports in November rose by 8.1 percent year on year to CZK 353.2 billion. For the whole year, however, the export index assumes a few percent drop in exports due to the coronavirus crisis.
Source: CTK and CSO
