The French government-backed think tank France Strategie has warned that a return to border checks and passport controls would cost Europe €100bn in the long-term, depending on the intensity of the controls.
Much of the costs would result from a decline in the number of visitors from European countries, reduced workforce mobility and a fall in the volume of goods shipped across borders. In the worst case scenario, the Schengen economies could slow by 0.8 percent (€100bn) in the long-run.
“Over the long term, the generalisation of permanent border controls would be equivalent to a 3 percent tax on trade between countries in the Schengen area, which would lead to a structural decline in trade of 10 to 20 percent,” France Strategie wrote.
