Half of Polish CEOs (50%) expect a strong slowdown in the Polish economy; 48% expect the slowdown to be moderate, according to the latest installment of the EY CEO Outlook Pulse survey. Regarding the global economy, six out of 10 CEOs surveyed by EY in Poland believe the slowdown will be moderate, while 40% believe it will be strong. On average, opinions are split down the middle globally, with 48% believing the slowdown will be moderate and 50% believing it will be strong.
“CEOs in Poland, without exception, expect an economic slowdown. However, they differ on its depth and durability. Despite increased geopolitical uncertainty in our country, Polish CEOs are more optimistic in their expectations than their colleagues in other countries, according to EY’s global survey. This is further evidence that resilience in the face of turmoil and the entrepreneurial spirit that goes with it are the strength of the domestic economy,” said a managing partner in EY’s Strategy and Transactions department.
According to the survey, 20% of surveyed CEOs in Poland expect a strong permanent slowdown in the global economy, 20% expect a strong but temporary slowdown, 33% expect a moderate and permanent downturn, while 27% expect a moderate temporary slowdown.
A strong and permanent downturn in the domestic economy is expected by 9% of Polish CEOs, while 41% believe the slowdown will be strong but temporary.
A stronger-than-global slowdown is expected by Polish CEOs in their home market. One in two respondents admitted that in their forecasts the slowdown in Poland will be strong. But this still means more optimism than characterizes CEOs from other countries. In EY’s global survey, a strong slowdown in the home market is feared by 56 percent of CEOs, it was announced.
CEOs managing Polish companies also anticipate (59 percent) that the recession will be more severe than the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Globally, 56 percent of respondents to the EY survey think so.
In the face of the slowdown, CEOs are changing their strategic plans. Most of them, 40% (41% globally), are reconfiguring supply chains. The same number of Polish CEOs are planning to relocate operational assets (36% globally). A third of Polish CEOs are withdrawing from some foreign markets (globally 34%), it was reported.
The authors of the report note that CEOs in Poland are half as likely as globally to delay investments until the geopolitical situation clarifies – 20% of respondents in Poland indicated such an answer, and 44% globally.
“Changes in strategy, however, do not exclude activities aimed at further development of Polish companies. CEOs plan to enter into joint ventures and establish strategic cooperation (63% in Poland and 58% worldwide) with partners. They also do not rule out mergers and acquisitions, which almost a third of Polish CEOs are planning (46% globally),” EY-Parthenon partner in Poland Arkadiusz Gęsicki said.
On the other hand, 40% of respondents are considering pulling out of some investments (globally, slightly fewer, 34% of CEOs, have such plans). On the other hand, new investments, unless they are halted by an economic slowdown, will take place primarily in those markets with which Poland has strong political and economic ties, 67% of respondents say. 78% of global managers have a similar outlook. Nearly a quarter of Polish CEOs (22%) are willing to take risks and invest in lesser-known markets, much more than globally (9%), it stated.
The global EY CEO Outlook Pulse survey was conducted in late 2022 among 1,200 CEOs in 22 countries. The Polish part of the survey was conducted in January and February 2023. It was attended by 30 CEOs of Polish companies with global reach. They primarily represented the manufacturing, life sciences (biotechnology and pharmaceuticals), as well as transportation and logistics, consumer products, trade, energy and banking sectors. Most of the Polish companies surveyed (33%) have revenues in the $500-999 million range, while 23% are in the $5-9.9 billion range.
Source: EY and ISBnews
