The most important factor from the point of view of Poland’s sovereign rating is currently not fiscal issues, but relations with the European Union, including the date of starting the use of new EU funds, inormed Arvind Ramakrishnan, chief analyst of Fitch for Poland.
“Generally speaking, relations with the EU come first because, as I mentioned before and I repeat: it is not at all the baseline that Poland will leave the EU, but it is important to consider the impact of these low-probability scenarios. they will even appear this year – again, this is not the baseline – but they will be delayed until next year or, potentially, even longer, Poland will have to start rethinking its budget, its plans on how to make up for investments. that means for the rule of law, “Ramakrishnan said during the webinar.
Fitch announced in a webinar presentation that he estimates Poland’s general government deficit at 4.3% of GDP in 2021 and forecasts this indicator at 3.1% of GDP in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023
In turn, the agency estimates the debt of this sector at 55.8% of GDP in 2021 and forecasts it at 53.8% in 2022 and 53.2% in 2023.
Source: Fitch and ISBnews
