On the wholesale market, fuel price increases have slowed down, but this is not enough to improve the situation on the retail market. There will be no reductions for now. In the coming days, prices at some stations may increase, and on a national scale, the average level of prices may increase by about 3-6 cents per liter, according to market comments from BM Reflex analysts.
Below is the market comment of BM Reflex:
In line with the latest forecasts, gasoline and diesel prices have risen this week. On average, we pay 9-10 cents more for a liter of gasoline and diesel fuel than a week ago. Only in the case of autogas, despite price fluctuations at individual stations, the average LPG price dropped by PLN 0.01 per liter.
The average fuel prices on February 10 are respectively for: 95 lead-free petrol – 5.31 PLN / l, 98 lead-free petrol – 5.58 PLN / l, for diesel – 5.35 PLN / l and autogas – 2.69 PLN / l.
The price analysis shows that the reduction in VAT did not stabilize fuel prices at the stations, and the market still decides about their level. Since the beginning of February, fuel prices at filling stations in net terms have increased by PLN 0.14 per liter, which means that fuel expenditure in enterprises has not decreased, and individual consumers have a real benefit from lower VAT rates.
With the legal status as of January 31 this year. (VAT 23%) – today’s level of gasoline and diesel oil prices at petrol stations would amount to PLN 6.05 and PLN 6.09 / l, respectively, and would be higher by about PLN 17-18 per liter compared to the prices at the end of January.
There is still a large variation between the minimum and maximum price levels. We can find stations where the prices of diesel and 95 octane petrol are below 5.2 PLN / l, but also those where we pay about PLN 5.49-5.59 for a liter of Pb95 and diesel.
In the wholesale market, price increases slowed down, but this is not enough to improve the situation on the retail market. There will be no reductions for now. In the coming days, prices at some stations may increase, and on a national scale, the average price level may increase by about PLN 3-6 per liter.
Prices for April’s series of Brent crude oil contracts on Friday morning remain in the region of $ 91.5 / bbl, a level around $ 2 / bbl lower than a week ago.
On February 8, the very important eighth round of US-Iran negotiations started in Vienna, which may result in a quick agreement and lifting of US sanctions, which in turn would open the way for a return to the Iranian oil market in the amount of 0.7-1 million bbl / d. It seems that in the current geopolitical and fundamental situation on the crude oil market, the American side will want to reach an agreement. The US and India are pressing again on OPEC to increase production and stabilize oil prices. The US president announced that he is working on measures that will lead to a decline in fuel prices.
According to the latest, revised forecasts, OPEC expects global crude oil consumption to increase by 4.15 million bbl / d to an average of 100.8 million bbl / d, and in the second half of the year, consumption will reach the level prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In 2022, the demand for crude oil from OPEC countries is expected to reach 28.92 million bbl / d. Cartel production in January amounted to 27.98 million bbl / d.
The US EIA expects average Brent crude oil prices in February at $ 90 / bbl. The annual average price level for 2022 and 2023 is projected at USD 82.87 / bbl and USD 68.48 / bbl, respectively. In January, commercial crude oil inventories in OECD countries will drop to the level of 270 million bbl, which is the lowest level since mid-2014 and 9% less than the 5-year average for this period. The EIA forecasts that inventory levels will begin to recover from March and return to the 5-year average by mid-2023.
Source: BM Reflex and ISBnews
