For the third time this year, the Institute for Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (UMAR) has downgraded its economic outlook for Slovenia. According to current calculations, GDP will decline by 8.1 percent this year, but with so many complications still arising from coronavirus epidemic the decline is likely to be even greater.
In early March, UMAR had already lowered its forecast for economic growth this year from three to 1.5 percent, as concern over the pandemic grew. But it soon conceded that Slovenia was embarking on a serious recession and predicted a contraction of 6 percent. UMAR now predicts that if restrictive measures end before June, GDP could fall by 8.1 percent for 2020. Assuming a recovery began in the second half of this year, GDP growth for 2021 could reach 3.5 percent. The worst-hit sectors are expected to be transport, hotels, restaurants and catering as well as manufacturing.
