Poland’s population will see a decline to 32.9 million people by 2060, the Central Statistical Office (CSO) forecasts. Compared to 2022, this means a decrease of 12.7% – i.e. by 4.8 million people. A large decline in the number of people of working age (18-59/64) is predicted, with an estimated decline of more than 23% (relative to 2022), i.e. by 5.1 million people, by 2060.
In 2060, Poland’s resident population will reach 32.9 million people. Compared to the state in 2022, this means a population reduction of 4.8 million, i.e. by 12.7%. In addition to the negative natural increase, we will observe further unfavourable changes in the population structure by age and a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age. People aged 65 and over will account for around 30% of the population, with an increase of 2.5 million compared to 2022. In contrast, women of reproductive age in 2060 will make up only 71% of the 2022 figure, according to the report.
By 2060, the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by more than a third, and those aged 80 and over will double, the GUS report pointed out.
Attention should also be paid to changes in the number of women aged 15-49, i.e. potential mothers. This number is expected to fall by as much as 29.2% by 2060 (relative to 2022), it was reported.
The birth rate is expected to be negative throughout the forecast period. In 2060, it will amount to -233,800, the CSO stated.
In addition, during the projected period, the number of people in the post-working age group will increase by about 2 million, while the number of people in the pre-working age group will decrease by a similar amount. The aforementioned phenomena will increase the demographic burden of people of non-working age from 72.2 in 2022 to 96.3 in 2060.
Emigration will decrease. It was assumed that a significant proportion of Ukrainian citizens currently under temporary protection due to the war in Ukraine and who are also residents of Poland will return to their country, reflecting the negative migration balance. It was assumed that around 37.5% of citizens from this country will stay permanently in Poland, tGUS reported.
As of 31 March 2023, there were 997,737 Ukrainian residents under temporary protection in Poland. More than half (64.8%) were women, and the feminisation rate was 184 women per 100 men arriving from Ukraine due to the armed conflict on Ukrainian territory, GUS reported.
Of the children from Ukraine under temporary protection, the largest number went to primary schools – 104,900.
Source: GUS and ISBnews
