Hungary’s mixed economic messages

14 August 2014

Industrial production on the Hungarian market jumped 11.3 percent in June compared to the same period last year, according to new figures from the country’s statistics office. The growth was driven primarily by automobile output, but further details reveal that the country’s construction sector jumped 9.8 percent in the same period. The larger picture is harder to gauge, however. For example, June’s construction figures represented a drop of 7.5 percent from May, which may indicate that the mild construction boom in recent quarters is coming to an end.

There’s disquiet on the foreign exchange markets at the moment, with some analysts predicting a serious decline in the value of the forint. Bloomberg is reporting that there’s a slightly better than even chance the Hungarian currency will slump to 324.5 per euro, which would be a low-water mark. It blames this on a reduction in stimulus measures from the US and the risk of contagion from the Ukranian crisis.

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