The Job Vacancy Barometer, prepared by the Department of Economics and Finance of UITM in Rzeszów and the Investment and Economic Cycles Office, indicating changes in the number of job advertisements published on the Internet, after significant declines at the end of last year, increased, albeit slightly, at the beginning of the new year. The activity of employers on the Polish labour market, due to the weakened economic situation compared to previous years, remains at a low level. In most of the observed categories of job offers, we note clear declines. In some of them, there are fewer vacancies than before the outbreak of the coronavirus, and what is worse, employers are constantly cutting their number. In January, there were categories in which the number of vacancies increased, but for the time being this is a one-off change. The situation between categories differs mainly in the scale of the declines so far and the rate at which vacancies have fallen month on month. The fastest declines continue in IT occupations. The trends, on the other hand, are much smoother for workers in low-skilled jobs. The registered unemployment rate, excluding unemployed people engaged only in seasonal work, fell by 0.1 percentage points in December to 5.1%.
On a regional basis, in January, after excluding seasonal work, an increase in the number of online job offers occurred in half of the provinces. Relatively most new job offers were announced in the Podkarpackie, Pomorskie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie Voivodeships. The largest decreases were recorded in the Warmińsko-Mazurskie, Podlaskie and Lubelskie Voivodeships.
Among the broad occupational groups, the largest number of new job ads in January came for service workers. This was the first increase after five months of reductions, although there were few new vacancies against the backdrop of previous declines. Excluding short-lived adjustments, the downward trend in services has continued for the past year and a half, but due to the sector’s less pro-cyclical nature and the brief recovery in the second quarter of last year, the magnitude of declines to date compared to other broad occupational groups has been markedly less. More vacancies than a month ago appeared for workers in non-advanced skilled jobs. After declines in the second half of 2022, we have seen a steady increase in the number of vacancies aimed at this type of worker for a year now. The number of vacancies currently being advertised for unskilled workers is oscillating at a level only slightly lower than during the historical peak prior to May 2022. Among the factors positively influencing the high recruitment activity of employers in this group of vacancies, we can distinguish both the lower wage pressure than in the advanced skilled occupations and the greater flexibility in search and replacement issues. We also noted a slight increase in the number of job advertisements on a monthly basis for occupations requiring a degree in science or engineering. Similarly to services, January’s increase interrupted a series of declines since last August. Nonetheless, the number of jobs on offer in science occupations has declined the most to date. It has more than halved since May 2022 as a result of systematic declines. The ‘expensive money’ caused by the high interest rates of the National Bank of Poland contributes to this. During the previous downturn in 2018-2019, when interest rates were lower, vacancies for science occupations decreased the least, while other broad groups saw sharper declines. January’s increases missed job vacancies for those educated in the social sciences or legal fields, where declines continued for the tenth consecutive month. However, January’s decline was small, the smallest since April last year. The magnitude of all past declines observed during the current downturn in this group of occupations is markedly smaller than in occupations requiring a science or engineering education.
In occupations requiring a degree in the social and legal sciences, the relatively largest increases in January were in purchasing, real estate and human resources management jobs, which for the time being are only a correction after exceptionally large declines in previous periods. The largest decreases on a monthly basis, on the other hand, were recorded for economists and customer service people. In most job categories, with the exception of a few isolated months, we are seeing a further deepening of the downturns. The situation between categories differs only in their scale.
Among job offers aimed at science or engineering graduates, in January we note an increase in the number of job advertisements in only a few categories. The largest occurred in the construction industry. In construction, we have seen a marked slowdown in declines since last April, and even a periodic increase. More job advertisements than a month ago also appeared for engineers and people working in e-commerce, although the scale of the increases was negligible. In both cases, by the end of last year, we had seen a clear downward trend that had already lasted a year and a half. In the other categories of job offers, vacancies decreased for another month in a row. The biggest declines were in occupations related to occupational health and safety. Against them, Health and Safety remains the only category among the strict professions where vacancies are relatively high from a historical perspective. For the fourth consecutive month, the situation in the category of offers related to research and development remains without significant change. In IT occupations, primarily programming, we see a further contraction in the number of job advertisements in January.
In the service occupations, in January, the number of advertised job offers was reduced by entrepreneurs only in logistics, where we have been observing clear declines for a year and a half. In the other categories, vacancies increased on a monthly basis. The largest number of new job advertisements appeared in the media industry. However, this increase is not significant against the backdrop of the clear downward trend observed for years. For the first time in six months, the number of job vacancies for employees in the education industry increased. This industry was, until recently, one of the few areas of the labour market where job adverts did not systematically decrease. However, we are now seeing a clear dive in the number of vacancies and a return to late 2020 levels. The demand for employees in the education sector may have been negatively affected by, among other things, the departure of refugees from Ukraine, who have so far actively taken advantage of the Polish educational offer. January also saw a break in the five-month series of declines seen in tourism.
Source: BIEC
