Sales of new flats on Poland’s seven largest markets totaled 5.7 thousand in October this year, according to Otodom Analytics. The supply of new dwellings amounted to 5.3 thousand last month, up 33% m/m and 158% y/y.
Could the level of new housing sales exceeding 5,000 once again in a single month have been a surprise? It could. Not because it is a very exorbitant level – after all, such results have been reported by Otodom Analytics since June. However, it was because the possibility of satisfying such a high level of demand was in question. Since February, we have been observing a very clear – a dozen or so, or even several dozen percent – advantage of the number of transactions over new introductions. October proved to be a breakthrough in this respect. Admittedly, once again fewer flats were added to the developers’ offer than were removed from it, but the difference amounted to a mere 6%, according to the report.
The 5,300 units launched for sale is the most in a single month since January 2022. – if one does not count a kind of ‘anomaly’ caused by the entry into force of the Developer Guarantee Fund regulations, it further reported.
“It is difficult to say whether developers believed in the lasting effect that the BK2% had on the supply side. Rather, it can be assumed that the October introductions were the result of several months of hard work by the development preparation teams working on obtaining permits or contracting general contractors. Supply-side inertia is definitely higher and launching projects is more difficult than generating buyer interest or facilitating access to finance,” Otodom Analytics residential market research director Katarzyna Kuniewicz commented.
According to Otodom experts, there are still too few indications of a calming down and price corrections.
Although the mobilisation of developers gives hope for a gentle slowdown in price growth dynamics, which remained at a similar level on a monthly basis (1-2 per cent growth), and in Krakow we even saw a small correction (-1 per cent), the imbalance caused by increased access to preferential loans will most likely persist until the end of the year, it was reported.
“Unless there are some concrete policy declarations, another wave of BK2% applications can be expected before the end of the year. Buyers are likely to mobilise amid fears of a shutdown or changes to the conditions for granting subsidies. This will be supported on the one hand by increased supply, i.e. a greater choice of flats, but also by the macroeconomic situation. ‘Credit is getting cheaper in real terms, and a slowdown in the rate of inflation may act positively on increased consumer confidence and the willingness to take on more debt,’ Otodom housing market expert Ewa Tęczak said,
The data includes markets in Warsaw, Krakow, Wrocław, the Tricity, Poznań, Łódź and Katowice.
Source: Otodom and ISBnews
