Zuzanna Dobra, Commercial Director at Eco Classic:
The housing market will continue to develop due to the demand for housing. Further migration of people to cities, immigration for economic purposes contribute to the increase in the demand for housing, both for purchase and rent. However, changes are necessary to enable efficient response to the market needs. Getting land and going through official procedures is becoming more and more time-consuming and labor-intensive. Restricting supply with steady or rising demand will have the obvious effect – further price increases.
Janusz Miller, Sales and Marketing Director of Home Invest:
We are optimistic about the future. We are an experienced developer with over 17 years of experience. Therefore, we are not afraid of the future of the housing sector. We are planning further development in this direction. We are constantly looking for land for new housing investments. We all understand that people need live somewhere. Even if they do not have the ability to take out a loan even temporarily, they will soon become interested in renting flats. In turn, investors will continue to buy flats, as it is well known that real estate is one of the safest forms of investing capital. It is especially important considering the galloping inflation and other factors related to the current situation in the country and in the world. In addition, there are also funds that have an appetite to purchase entire investments from developers.
Joanna Chojecka, sales and marketing director for Warsaw and Wrocław at the Robyg Group:
The residential real estate market will develop steadily over the next two years. We expect demand to continue to outstrip supply due to the procedural and administrative requirements for introducing new investments. The increase in demand may also be stimulated by buyers who invest their capital, however, those who buy an apartment for their own needs will still constitute a significant part of buyers, because Poland still lacks several million apartments.
As for the problems on the market, analyzes show that the supply is still disproportionate to the demand, which is the result of high interest in purchasing apartments combined with slower introduction to the market by developers due to extended administrative procedures. As a result, the developers’ offer is shrinking for another quarter in a row. For example, in Warsaw developers usually offer the number of flats three quarters ahead, and currently the offer has shrunk to about one quarter. This is the direct cause of rising housing prices, along with rising land and building materials prices. Therefore, it is very important that local governments speed up administrative procedures in this area as much as possible.
Boaz Haim, CEO of Ronson Development:
There must be a margin for error in predicting the future in such exciting and changing times. Certainly, real estate is and will be a safe haven for savings. We expect that in 2022 the price growth will slow down to single-digit values. However, the accompanying inflation and rising credit prices can all change the market vectors. Especially that many customers, mainly from the popular segment, are already facing limited creditworthiness and turn to the rental segment. It is for this group of customers that we are opening our new activity in the PRS segment.
Apart from economic factors, demographic conditions are also very important. Younger generations value mobility, financial independence, and thus – a flexible housing offer, adapted to their current needs. It is for this reason that we have decided that in 2022 we will develop the second pillar of our business – institutional lease, and by the end of 2025 our offer of apartments for rent will include approximately 3,000 units. Developers’ activities are also greatly influenced by the ongoing climate change and the need for a balanced response to it. Hence, in our investments, we place great emphasis on ecological solutions and greenery, which is of great importance for the comfort of our clients’ lives.
Adrian Potoczek, development director at Wawel Service:
Increase in construction costs, fewer construction starts, higher apartment prices and a higher cost of purchasing plots for multi-family housing are factors that will be faced by the housing industry in the coming years. The ‘Flat without own contribution’ program announced by the Polish Deal may increase the demand for flats, but only insignificantly. Especially in large cities, it will be difficult to find a place that meets the requirements specified by the program. With all these changes, it is worth remembering that the purchase of real estate is and will continue to be an attractive investment option for a long time to come.
Wojciech Chotkowski, President of the Management Board of Aria Development:
The coming years will be smaller towns and projects on the outskirts, where more and more is being built. Plots of land at reasonable prices are lacking in large cities, and protracted administrative procedures are not conducive to starting new investments. We also do not know how the situation in Ukraine will develop and what impact it will have on the housing market.
Jarosław Kozak, President of the Management Board of Waryński S.A. Holding Group:
We do not expect a drop in housing prices. Taking into account the growing costs related to the purchase of materials and the insufficient amount of land, we can say – with a considerable degree of certainty – that there are no determinants of reductions in the real estate sector. Of course, inflation and rising interest rates have a significant impact on the housing market, but the indicated economic factors may only cause prices to rise, not fall. We assume that the above-mentioned circumstances will shape the housing market, but in a different way than the buyers would like. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of volunteers. Currently, there are more people interested in buying a flat than available apartments on the market. Conclusion and they come to their own, supply is unable to meet demand. Of course, the analyzes show that there may be a slight decline in people looking for housing, but not particularly noticeable for the real estate development industry.
Marcin Michalec, CEO Okam:
In recent times, the needs related to having even a scrap of greenery, space for shared use with other tenants or the proximity of shops and the most important service points have become more visible, and all this has been aggravated by the pandemic. In the near future, more places combining many functions will be created, with the use of pro-environmental solutions, which will gain in importance in the residential real estate sector.
An important element for the industry will also be the fact that agglomerations and larger cities are beginning to have extremely limited resources of central areas for housing investments. Undoubtedly, therefore, the outskirts will expand, where not only houses will be built, but also housing estates in the suburban towns adjacent to the agglomeration will be developed. Where possible, the expansion of the outermost districts or neighborhoods surrounding the city is also likely. It will also be important to expand the road and transport infrastructure in these areas for efficient movement to the city center.
The situation in the housing market, in particular the demand, will of course also be influenced by economic indicators and the level of wages. Their growth confronted with the level of inflation, possible further increases in interest rates affecting the creditworthiness or the amount of loan installments and the possibility of their repayment.
