The negative impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has started today, on Polish GDP is in the range of 1-1.5%, and its effects also mean the announcement of a further increase in inflation and probably also a larger scale of rate hikes, believe the Bank’s analysts Pekao.
From an economic point of view, this is one of the worst-case scenarios. The combined impact of the slowdown in trade with Russia and Ukraine (these two countries account for approx. 5% of Polish exports) should be estimated at 1-1.5% of Polish GDP, but the main channel impact on the Polish economy is of a price nature and is related to the increase in the prices of energy raw materials and agricultural produce. A further rise in inflation this year and a greater scale of interest rate increases should be taken into account, according to the bank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered a special military operation in Donbas. Martial law was imposed throughout Ukraine.
Source: Pekao and ISBnews
