Poland will avoid a recession next year, with growth of around 1%, while inflation is expected to slow down “very significantly” from April, according to Polish Development Fund (PFR) President Pawel Borys.
“Poland is most likely to face a so-called soft landing, i.e. it consists in avoiding recession and rising unemployment, while at the same time getting inflation under control, which should already fall very significantly from April,” he said,” Borys said in an interview with TVN24.
According to him, a technical recession should not happen in Poland.
“We will go through an economic slowdown, but we will avoid a recession, because this economic growth should be about 1%, and we will get in the second half of next year already such a stabilization of the economy,” he added.
According to him, the most difficult period in the Polish economy should be roughly until April – then we will have both an economic slowdown.
According to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), consumer inflation was 17.5% on an annual basis in November 2022. Compared to the previous month, prices of goods and services rose by 0.7%.
According to the National Bank of Poland’s projections, consumer inflation in 2023 will be – according to the central inflation projection path – 19.6% y/y in Q1, 14.2% in Q2, 11.1% in Q3 and 8% in Q4.
Next year’s budget law, adopted earlier in December by the Sejm, assumes real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, although government officials have said recently that they expect economic growth of around 1-1.5% next year.
Source: PFR and ISbnews
