The Labour Market Index (WRP), which provides advance information on future changes in the size of unemployment, decreased by 0.5 points in November this year compared with the previous month. The downward trend in the index has been observed for the last three months, however, in the longer term, i.e. since mid-2022, the index has not changed significantly, with monthly changes of less than 1 point. Thus, the impression can be given that the movement of workers and the unemployed, as well as labour demand, remains frozen in anticipation of a sustained recovery of the economy or at least its seasonal increase in activity. However, it is important to realise that with the onset of economic recovery, the gap in the labour market will become even more pronounced, which may reach up to 1.5 million people in the next two years, and without systemic solutions to activate specific groups of workers and facilitate the employment of foreigners, the problem of the shortage of labour will continue to remain unresolved.
The registered unemployment rate, not seasonally adjusted, has remained unchanged since June this year at 5%.
Currently, only one component of the indicator is acting to increase it and thus foreshadowing an increase in the unemployment rate. This is the number of unemployed deregistered due to taking up employment. The remaining six components of the indicator portend a decrease in its value and thus a decrease in the registered unemployment rate.
The number of unemployed people who de-registered from labour offices due to taking up employment decreased by less than 4% on a monthly basis (just over 2,000 fewer people found work in October compared to September). Nevertheless, in absolute terms, relatively few unemployed people are finding work. The employment potential of the registered unemployed is relatively low in view of the requirements and expectations formulated in job offers. The number of people de-registering due to taking up employment is significantly lower in comparison with the inflow to unemployment, as well as in relation to the number of new jobs registered in labour offices. This situation is taking place in conditions where job vacancy announcements are systematically decreasing and, at the same time, the inflow to unemployment is decreasing. Although the number of job vacancies registered at labour offices increased by 6% in October compared to September, it is 12.5% lower on average since the beginning of this year compared to January-October last year. The number of job advertisements available on the internet is also continuing to fall. The Job Offer Barometer (BOP), which measures changes in the supply of online job advertisements, fell again in October this year. After four months of relatively little change, the number of vacancies fell quite significantly for the second month in a row and the value of the Job Offer Barometer (BOP) fell to its lowest level since April 2021.
The changes in the BOP are in line with the forecasts formulated by managers of industrial companies. While they improved slightly on a monthly basis, a negative balance of assessments regarding both the current economic situation of companies and forecasts for changes in employment volume prevails.
The number of people registering as unemployed decreased by 3% on a monthly basis, while the average monthly inflow into unemployment remains similar to the situation a year ago. The number of unemployed people made redundant for reasons attributable to the workplaces decreased by 2%. In contrast, the total amount of unemployment benefits paid was unchanged on a monthly basis.
Source: B I E C – www.biec.org
