Apartment prices in the coming months will not change or will fall only slightly, according to experts from Expander, domiporta.pl and Otodom Analytics, quoted by Business Insider Polska.
“The number of offers is stable, close to the level of recent months or a year ago. There are no signs of panic selling. However, the prices quoted in the ads are getting lower. Since the peak we recorded in May 2022, rates have been steadily falling. In most cases, however, the declines are relatively small. On average, prices have fallen by only 3.4% since May,” Expander analyst Jarosław Sadowski told Business Insider Polska.
Deeper price declines, according to him, are blocked by several mechanisms. First, many apartments currently being commissioned by developers have long since been sold.
“Recall that during the market boom, buying an apartment under construction was an effective way to get a lower price. Many developers are therefore not yet forced to implement large price cuts. In the secondary market, on the other hand, strong rental demand and credit vacations are key. Without statutory credit vacations, many people who bought apartments in recent years would not have been able to cope with paying twice the installments. They would be forced to sell the apartment quickly, even at a heavily discounted price. Thanks to the vacation, they can continue to live in their new apartment, so they don’t create downward pressure on prices,” Sadowski noted.
Domiporta.pl’s content coordinator Bartlomiej Baranowski also believes that housing prices can be expected to fall in the coming months.
“Already in many places, counting month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter, one can find lower amounts. For year-on-year comparisons, prices are still rising. This, however, is due to the high base for comparison. The coming months may bring price decreases, but how big the reduction will be, whether we’re talking about 5% or 10%, is difficult to determine unequivocally,” Baranowski told Business Insider.
He admitted that he does not expect a huge bump in prices of, say, 30%.
“You have to remember that developers still have cash customers or funds. And, in addition, many of them have cut back on new construction, investing effort only in estates about which they are certain of profit. I would rather expect larger reductions in the secondary market. The coming months could be crucial for individual owners. The first few months without a credit vacation will be a punishing ‘check.’ Only then will we find out who can afford to pay much higher loan installments. Some owners in subprime situations may decide to sell their property quickly, just to cover the credit dues. However, this is a black scenario,” he cautioned.
Housing market expert at Otodom Analytics Marcin Krasoń also says there is nothing to count on spectacular discounts.
“In the coming months, on a national scale, I expect further stabilization of housing prices, although in smaller urban centers, especially in the secondary market, we will probably encounter price reductions, but there is nothing to count on spectacular discounts. At the same time, there will also be localities where rates per square meter will go up a bit. The National Bank of Poland forecasts that inflation will begin to fall next year, if that were the case, price increases could return in the second half or at the end of the year,” Krasoń said.
“What happens next will depend on the situation in the credit market. Once the credit market returns to the familiar norm, demand will explode. That means prices will rise and the number of apartments on offer will fall. The fastest to disappear will be the most popular units, as usual. On the developers’ side, it’s a big challenge for them to be prepared for future market recovery. What will count here is access to reliable market data and readiness to quickly launch new investments,” he added.
According to data from the rynekpierwotny.pl portal cited by Business Insider Polska, listed developers found buyers for 3,524 units in the third quarter of this year, down 47% y/y and down 17% q/q. Overall, they sold 12,769 units during the three quarters, a 37% worse y/y result.
Source: ISBnews
