For a housing loan in February this year. a total of 30.42 thous. potential borrowers, compared to 47.72 thousand. a year earlier, which means a decrease by 36.6% y / y, the Credit Information Bureau (BIK) reported. Average value of the requested housing loan in February this year. amounted to 360.7 thousand. PLN and was higher by 11.1% compared to the value of February 2021 and higher by 1.5% than in January 2022.
The value of BIK Index – Demand for Housing Loans (BIK Index – PKM) fell to 29.2% in February this year. This means that in February 2022, as per business day, banks and credit unions sent inquiries to BIK for housing loans for an amount lower by 29.2% compared to February 2021, it was stated.
“The February reading of the Index is even lower than the lowest readings for the April (-28.1%) and May 2020 (-24.4%) pandemic periods (-24.4%). The February index was negatively affected by a very large drop in the number of applicants compared to February last year.In February 2021 the number of people applying for a home loan was high, while the number of people applying for a home loan in February 2022 is the fourth lowest result since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. February 2021 Another important factor behind the decline in the number of applicants for a housing loan is the increase in interest rates and the announcement of further increases. Moreover, the number of applicants has not yet fully reflected the effect of the war in Ukraine, as the data refer to only a few days of the war. we will see it only in the March and in the following months,” said the chief analyst of BIK, Waldemar Rogowski.
He added that the value of demand for housing loans in the current situation will, first of all, be influenced by the psychological effect associated with the decline in the sense of life security in the face of war in the closest neighbor.
“In the long run, this may increase the risk of real estate investments,” Rogowski said.
“Another unknown is the monetary policy of the MPC in the current situation – will ‘hawkish accents’ continue to dominate? What will be with the supply on the real estate market? Possible 20-30% outflow of workers from construction companies, increase in prices of materials and raw materials due to rising inflation In such conditions, contractors will probably not be able to determine the final cost of building 1 m2 of an apartment, which may result in some developers not being willing to start new investments. Many, we do not know the answer to most of them. The next few months will be decisive, the more so that the situation is dynamic and the market is extremely uncertain,” summed up Rogowski.
The BIK Index – PKM is calculated per business day, excluding inquiries about housing loans for amounts exceeding PLN 1 million and inquiries about the same client in the next 90 days. The index methodology was developed by the Credit Information Bureau in cooperation with the Institute of Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics. The index is published monthly.
Source: BIK and ISBnews
