A positive result of the Polish economy in Q3 compared to the first half of this year, according to economists, testifies to the implementation of the “soft landing” scenario. According to them, in the following quarters there will be further acceleration of the economic situation, driven mainly by the increase in the dynamics of private consumption. Economists estimate that economic growth for the fourth quarter of this year will fluctuate around +2% y/y, while for the whole of 2023 it will be in the range of +0.2-0.5%.
As reported yesterday by the Central Statistical Office (GUS), Gross Domestic Product (solidary average annual prices of the previous year, unequal seasonally) increased by 0.4% y/y in Q3. 2023 vs. 0.6% of the y/y drop in the previous quarter. The market consensus in Q3 was 0.3% increase in seasonally uncompensed. In the third quarter of 2023. Seasonal level adjusted GDP (in constant prices at the reference year 2015) increased by 1.4% in real terms compared to the previous quarter and was higher than a year ago by 0.5%.
The Central Statistical Office also reported that in Q2. 2023 seasonally adjusted growth amounted to 0.3% quarter/qw – according to data published on 23 October this year, in this period there was a decrease of 1.4% of Q/QW; in annual terms, the annual GDP adjusted seasonally in Q2 decreased by 0.3% – compared to 1.1% decrease in this percentage according to data from 23 October. The Authority has made seasonal adjustments also in seasonally adjusted for the remaining quarters of 2021-2023.
The rebound in the economy in Q3 occurred mainly due to the higher contribution of consumption in the conditions of disinflation, as a result of the increase in real household salaries. Increased inventories, high investment contribution supported by high activity of large companies and public sector expenditures before the end of the EU’s financial perspective, also contributed to the improvement of the economy’s result.
Analysts emphasize that the lower contribution of net exports in the third quarter of this year (augment of domestic demand in weak conditions abroad) was a factor inhibiting economic growth.
The economists of PKO BP estimate that in the third quarter of this year the dynamics of private consumption “it was still close to 0% y/y (after two quarters of declines y/y), but already in 4q23 its increase is almost certain”.
Analysts estimate that the last quarter of this year will close with the dynamics of approx. 2% y/y GDP growth, and in the whole 2024 it can reach 3% y/y. They expect that next year there will be a clear weakening of the investment – even around 0% y/y due to the expiry of EU funds from the perspective for 2014-2020, at the same time limited pace of spending from the next budget perspective.
The data provided by the Central Statistical Office are preliminary and may be subject to revision, the full structure of GDP will be published on November 30, 2023.
Below are the most interesting comments from analysts:
“The Polish economy is returning to the growth path. The reflection will be relatively slow. The main problem is the weak prospects for the development of the European Union. Inner demand will remain strong due to fiscal actions” -Jakub Rybacki Polish Economic Institute (PIE)
“After the last two revisions (from August and the present), a number of seasoned real GDP are already close to what could be expected, for example, on the basis of monthly data. However, in the light of these data, the subway of activity fell on the fourth quarter of 2022, when GDP fell by 2.3% quarter/kw, while industrial and construction-assembly production increased by 2.1% quarters/sqm. This anomaly still makes it difficult to date the turning points in the Polish economy measured differently than the annual dynamics” – Piotr Bartkiewicz, CFA Expert Bank Pekao
The quarterly GDP growth purified from the impact of seasonal factors increased in Q3 to 1.4% of Q1 vs. 0.3% in Q2 (revision up from -1.4%). Thus, the third quarter was the third quarter in a row, in which there was an increase in the de-seasoned GDP. As a result, our scenario of the “soft landing” of the Polish economy – senior economist Credit Agricole Bank Polska Krystian Jaworski.
Source: GUS and ISBnews
