The Russian-Ukrainian conflict could hamper Poland’s economic recovery. Local analysts warn that the recent military action along the Crimea peninsula may slow Poland’s GDP, hitting both exports and new investments. “While the Polish economy moves into recovery mode, with entrepreneurs starting to add new jobs to the market, the only threat to the country turns out to be the latest events beyond our eastern border,” says Paweł Radwański, an economist from Raiffeisen Polbank.
According to the Polish economic ministry, Ukraine is Poland’s eighth biggest export market, making up nearly 3 percent of the country’s foreign trade. A recent report from the Polish government shows that Poland’s exports to Ukraine dropped 10 percent in January.
Analysts from PKO BP estimate that a recession in Ukraine could spark a 50-percent drop in Polish exports. They point out that it’s the Polish small and medium-sized companies that would suffer the most from the conflict. Radosław Bodys, chief economist at PKO BP, says that Poland’s SME sector would have to quickly shift into new export markets.
