Zuzanna Dobra, Commercial Director at Eco Classic:
The biggest challenge for the market is limiting the possibility of obtaining loans and increasing their costs. This will reduce the number of transactions, but can also be beneficial for an even faster price increase. We will certainly continue to experience production difficulties, including shortages, and rising material and labor prices.
Mariola Żak, sales and marketing director at Aurec Home
The development of the real estate market in 2022 is largely dependent on the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Developers speak with one voice: rising construction costs are currently the greatest difficulties faced by all market participants. At the beginning of this year, the prices of building materials increased by an average of 28%. compared to January 2021. The already difficult situation for the industry was aggravated by the Russian invasion, which in a very short time caused an increase in commodity prices on world markets. Currently, we notice the problem with the availability of building materials from the East and the very high costs of transporting them.
Interest rate increases have been a hot topic in recent months. Higher loan repayments mean lower creditworthiness of many households, which means that some of them will give up or postpone the decision to buy a flat.
A burning problem in the industry is also the limited availability of land for investment. Plots of land with a regulated legal situation, in the most attractive locations and prices, is like a medicine and clearly more expensive. Developers have to buy plots of lower attractiveness or come to terms with high prices driven by high demand.
Another challenge facing the real estate industry is the developer act, which comes into force on July 1 this year. The biggest change to these regulations will be the establishment of the Developer Guarantee Fund, which requires developers to pay 1 percent. gross prices for each payment for a sold flat or house.
From the developers’ point of view, it is comforting that despite rising housing prices, demand remains high and does not keep up with supply, which means that we will have something to do.
Teresa Witkowska, Napollo Residential Sales and Marketing Director:
The main challenge for developers will be to attract customers in the popular segment. Due to changes in regulations, inflation, an increase in interest rates and the war in Ukraine, the time in which a client decides to buy a property has increased significantly. Even during the pandemic, we noticed that customers were determined and wanted to invest. This has changed now, so it is crucial for us to reach the potential buyer and identify his needs very carefully.
Marcin Michalec, CEO Okam:
Certainly, one of the most important challenges in the coming months of this year may be the increase in the prices of some building materials and raw materials, as well as the problem of the shortage of employees in the construction sector, mainly physical workers, which may translate into delays in the implementation of investments and increases in the prices of premises. Another significant impact on the market will be the economic situation, including indicators such as inflation, interest rates and their possible increases, as well as regulations related to the Polish Government, which affect income, and thus the purchasing power of households. Another disadvantageous aspect is the issue of investment plots that are more expensive and, at the same time, very limited, especially in large cities. The further development of the situation in Ukraine is a big unknown that will have an impact, for example, causing fears among some investors or even suspending some of their projects. Certainly, investments and plans implemented in Poland by foreign investors who treat our market as uncertain due to the proximity of Ukraine will stop for some time. At the same time, in the event of an increase in interest rates, more expensive loans may limit the demand for housing, although this demand has been significantly higher than the supply for a long time. Of course, we must also remember about the amendment to the developer law and the implementation of new regulations by investors, as well as about frequently lengthening administrative processes.
Edyta Kołodziej, Sales and Marketing Director at Nickel Development:
The situation on the housing market in 2022 will certainly be dynamic. There are many variables that will affect the sector and we need to be prepared for different scenarios. We are currently struggling with an increase in loan interest rates, rising construction costs and an outflow of Ukrainian workers. Due to the continued growth in real estate prices, which, however, should slow down in the second half of 2022, the increase in interest rates, the next scenes of which are still ahead of us, as announced by the Monetary Policy Council, introducing new investments to the market will be quite a challenge. It should be taken into account that the offer on the market will be smaller and rather dedicated to the more affluent. We note a lot of investors’ interest in small apartments, especially in the Fiqus Marcelin investment. Investors, observing rising rental prices, are very eager to invest in real estate. On the other hand, apartments with larger sizes, which we offer in St_art Piątkowo, are bought for their own needs. These sell very quickly, as there is a small supply of ready-made flats on the market.
Janusz Miller, Sales and Marketing Director of Home Invest
The housing market in 2022 will have to deal with a completely new situation. We are currently dealing with rising construction costs and an increase in interest rates, which will translate into a further increase in housing prices. The past years have consolidated the regularity that when loans are expensive, housing prices drop and vice versa. Now there is no reason to go back to the past.
Wojciech Chotkowski, President of the Management Board of Aria Development:
The biggest challenges are high inflation, the lack of construction plots at reasonable prices, the introduction of the Development Guarantee Fund, new requirements related to energy efficiency and electromobility, and the uncertainty related to the war in the East. The market will be supported by strong demand, as there is still a shortage of 3 million apartments in Poland.
Sebastian Barandziak, president of the management board of Dekpol Deweloper:
The situation on the housing market in 2022 will be very dynamic. In March this year, we observed a decline in the supply and demand for new flats in most large cities. Analysts indicate that housing construction is negatively affected by, among others, rising interest rates on loans and construction costs. Another factor that worsens the situation of the sector is the war in Ukraine. Construction sites are running out of manpower again, as many Ukrainian workers have returned to their homeland. In turn, the effect of the sanctions imposed on Russia is an increase in prices, including energy and fuel and steel. The challenge for the housing market will therefore be to maintain the level of apartment sales at last year’s level. And this, with increasing interest rates, which reduce the number of customers, as well as a potential increase in the prices of premises as a result of an increase in mat prices. building materials, it will not be easy. Another challenge will be the timely implementation of the investment, despite the limitations in access to workforce at construction sites and the current timely delivery of materials.
Source: ISBnews
