The end of an era looms over Poland, as the last popularity polls before parliamentary elections this weekend indicate that the ruling coalition government will be knocked from power. Most observers are predicting a return of the Law and Justice party (PiS), but few are willing to prognosticate on how the party will rule. Certainly, the grouping appears to have softened its once legendary rhetoric towards the outside world, in particular its aversion to Germany. But it remains a staunch opponent of Russian influence in European and Polish affairs, and remains suspicious of the Kremlin’s culpability over the death of the late Polish president Lech Kaczynski in a plane crash in Russia in 2010. How large a shift in Poland’s economic and political direction will depend to a large degree on the size of Law and Justice’s victory, as it is still uncertain whether it will even be able to form a government. Along with a collection of small centrist and leftist parties, other potential coalition candidates for PiS include another populist group led by a Polish rock star, and the current ruling party Civic Platform.
