According to the report prepared by redNet Consulting for the website Tabelaofert.pl, 3.7 million refugees have come to Poland to Poland since the beginning of the war, of which 1.7 million have returned to their homeland. More than half of the 2 million people who found shelter with us received a PESEL number, about 200,000 children study in Polish schools, and another tens of thousands found care in kindergartens. Each refugee needs a roof over his head and a job. Due to their arrival, the rental market is booming, the demand is huge – the question is who will be able to satisfy it? What changes have already occurred and what awaits the real estate market in the near future? – expert comments by Katarzyna Tworska, managing director of redNet 24, a company specializing in the sale of development apartments, and Maciej Dymkowski, president of the table of tableofert.pl.
“Since the Second World War, Europe has not struggled with a similar migration crisis as it is today. Poland has become the main country of refuge for refugees due to our good-neighborly relations with Ukraine. The willingness of ordinary citizens and the government to help is very great. Due to the lack of a language barrier, as many as 102,000 Ukrainians have already found work with us. Just three months after the Russian aggression, the rental market in Poland underwent a huge revolution. In some cities there is already a shortage of offers, rents have risen by 30% -50%, and there has not been such great demand for years,” notes Maciej Dymkowski.
2 million refugees currently live in Poland:
The migration crisis had a significant impact on the real estate market in Poland. Initially, there was an increased demand on the rental market, and now this situation has a positive impact on the development of the primary market, increased demand and financial liquidity. About 30% of the refugees who come to us may stay in Poland for a longer period – according to a report prepared by redNet Consulting for the website Tabelaofert.pl
“Developers are well aware that they have to quickly respond to customer needs. According to our analysis, it is now necessary to change the structure of the premises and adapt it to the current possibilities of buyers. The number of premises with a large area with a small number of rooms should be limited, because their sales are already declining due to the creditworthiness of buyers. The development of the rental housing sector has become extremely important. As time passes, refugees now living in small spaces, often with several families in one apartment, will seek deals that offer more privacy. However, now we need, first of all, ready-made apartments,” emphasizes Katarzyna Tworska.
What awaits the real estate market in the near future?
The war in Ukraine caused a currency and raw materials crisis. The prices of energy, fuel, workmanship and construction materials, the supply chains of which are very difficult, have increased. Inflation is the highest since 1998 and reached 14%, which will surely translate into further increases in interest rates and a decline in borrowers’ capacity. How does this affect the real estate market?
“In the near future, an increase in the number of commenced projects should be expected in connection with the entry into force of the new developer act on July 1. At the moment, there are no premises that would herald a drop in prices, despite the reduced demand, due to the limited possibilities of customers using a mortgage when buying a flat. Looking ahead, inflation and interest rates will fall, and hence credit demand will rebuild. In the longer term, there may be an increase in sales of larger flats and houses, as well as an increase in the prices of flats exceeding inflation,” estimates Katarzyna Tworska.
