61% of Central European CFOs expect company revenue growth in 2024, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous year, according to the 2024 Central Europe CFO Survey.
“The results of the latest survey provide evidence that business is adapting to the new, more challenging environment. Although there is still instability – the war in Ukraine continues, tensions in the global economy have only slightly decreased, this is an improvement on the situation a year ago. Global supply chains are operating more smoothly and commodity prices are also normalising. Having learnt from the experience of recent years, CFOs see this improvement in their environment and are optimistic about growth prospects despite the many numerous challenges,” said partner, Deloitte economic analysis team leader Julia Patorska.
Deloitte calculates the CE CFO Confidence Index in the study, which consists of three sub-indexes. Each reflects the CFOs’ perspective on the business environment (Business Environment Confidence Index), economic processes (Economy Confidence Index) and the performance prospects of the companies represented by the respondents (Company Perspective Confidence Index).
The latest reading of the main index indicates a significant improvement in sentiment among the CFOs surveyed. The Confidence Index value for 2024 was 17 points. This is not only nearly double the previous year’s score, but also the highest level of the index since before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the survey.
61% of respondents expect more revenue in 2024, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous year. There is also a not insignificant shift in sentiment regarding operating margins, with 35% of respondents expecting them to increase, up 10 percentage points from a year earlier. An increasing number of entities also intend to increase investment (39% vs. 36% a year earlier) and plan to increase employment (32%, up 2 percentage points from the end of 2022), according to the survey.
When asked about the expected GDP growth of Central European countries in 2024, the most frequently indicated answer was 1.1%. A year earlier, the largest number of responses indicated a growth rate three times lower. In turn, the percentage of CFOs predicting higher unemployment over the next several months fell by 30 percentage points to 38%. Fewer and fewer managers also assume an increase in the rate of inflation: 57% vs. 70% a year earlier. Survey respondents also shared their opinion on the projected rate of price increases in their country and in the Eurozone as a whole. The average inflation prediction in the former category was 6.1%, while for the Eurozone it was 4.1%. The biggest differences can be seen in the predictions for, among others, Poland – 7.5% versus 4.3%.
“In the results of the current survey, I notice a lot of caution from CFOs. The respondents see an improving business environment and are also more optimistic about their company’s prospects. At the same time, however, they do not believe that the situation is also improving more broadly, in the economy as a whole. This is well illustrated by the example of Poland – 57% of respondents estimate that GDP growth will not exceed 1.5% this year, and only 8% expect growth above 2.6%. Meanwhile, half of the economists surveyed by the National Bank of Poland expect GDP growth of 3% or more. So there is scope for a positive surprise,” said Aleksander Łaszek Senior Manager in the economic analysis team at Deloitte.
The ‘2024 Central Europe CFO Survey’ involved 544 CFOs from 15 Central European countries. The survey was conducted between October and December 2023.
Source: Deloitte and ISBnews
