Friday’s observed increase in European ready fuel prices and the weakening of the zloty against the USD, if continued next week, may mean that there will be no falls in fuel prices at stations in the following week, according to a market commentary by BM Reflex analysts.
BM Reflex market commentary below:
Another week with no clear change in the fuel market trend is behind us. Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil and finished products on the European market, combined with movements in the USD/PLN exchange rate, allow prices on the domestic wholesale market to remain relatively stable, which translates into the retail market.
Average prices are now at 6.47 PLN/l for unleaded petrol 95 (down by 2 gr/l on 29/06/2023), 7.07 PLN/l for unleaded 98 (0 gr/l), 6.19 PLN/l for diesel (-1 gr/l) and 2.85 PLN/l for LPG (-3 gr/l).
It should be remembered that fuel prices continue to vary depending on the location and operator of the station. Travelling across the country, we may encounter stations where the prices of both petrol and diesel are significantly below the national average, i.e. we may pay ca. 6.30 PLN per litre of petrol and 5.90 PLN per litre of diesel. When looking for cheaper fuel, it is worth taking advantage of current promotions or choosing independent stations where prices will be lower regardless of promotions.
The increase in fuel prices observed on Friday and the weakening of the PLN against the USD may change the situation on the domestic fuel market, if it continues next week. Unfortunately, this may mean that we have nothing to count on in terms of decreases in fuel prices at stations next week.
Crude oil
Prices for the September series of Brent crude oil contracts this morning remain in the region of US$77/bbl. On a weekly basis, Brent crude oil is up around USD 1.6/bbl. Prices for Russian Urals crude FOB Rotterdam rose in the region of USD 60/bbl.
Supporting the market are announcements by Saudi Arabia to extend voluntary production cuts of 1 million bbl/d until August and maintain production at its lowest level since June 2021, at 9 million bbl/d. Russia, on the other hand, announced its intention to reduce crude oil exports in August by 0.5 million bbl/d. Due to Russia’s announcement to reduce crude oil exports in August by 0.5 million bbl/d, Russian crude oil exports in July are expected to be high.
In June, Russian crude oil exports by sea stood at 3.46 million bbl/d. This represents a drop of 10% on a monthly basis to the lowest level since February this year. On the other hand, the level of exports is still higher compared to the average level (3.1 million bbl/d) before Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The decline in exports in June is mainly the result of reduced purchases of Russian oil by India and China. Turkey, on the other hand, imported a record amount of Russian fuels in June.
Sources: BM Reflex and ISBnews
