The gas deficit in Poland of 7 million m3 / day as a result of the closing of supplies from the Yamal pipeline will be replaced by fuel flow from Germany until the Baltic Pipeline is launched in autumn this year, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
Russian flows to Poland via the Yamal pipeline, for which the termination of deliveries has been announced, averaged 20 million m3 / d since the beginning of this month. We believe that this summer will be largely compensated by a combination of higher LNG imports (6 million m3 / d). d) and using this year’s storage surplus (7 million m3 / d), leaving only a 7 million m3 / d deficit, which will be covered by increased flows from Germany to the region, until Poland starts receiving Norwegian gas via the new gas pipeline from autumn this year. This demand from Germany is lower than the flows observed so far this month, and even if it continues for the rest of the summer, the flow of 1.3 billion m3 into storage will be more than offset by 1.8 billion m3 less than expected gas flow from Germany, according to the Goldman Sachs report.
As calculated by the government plenipotentiary for strategic energy infrastructure, Piotr Naimski, currently 6.5 billion m3 of gas supplies annually are provided by the gas terminal in Świnoujście, 5.5 billion m3 – physical reverse on the Yamal gas pipeline, 1.5 billion m3 – another entry from the German side. On May 1, the Poland-Lithuania gas pipeline (GIPL) will be launched for 2.5 billion m3. We also have a connection with the Czech Republic for about 1-1.5 billion m3 of gas. In summer, an interconnector with Slovakia for 5-6 bcm of gas will be launched.
Under the Yamal contract, approximately 9 billion m3 of gas was supplied to Poland annually. The average annual gas consumption in Poland is 20 billion m3.
Source: Goldman Sachs and ISBnews
Photo: gaz-system
