Prices in retail stores increased on average by 23.7% y / y in August after an increase of 18.6% y / y in July and by 16.7% y / y in June, according to the report “Price index in retail stores” by UCE Research and WSB Universities. The double-digit increase affected each of the 12 monitored categories.
“At the moment, there is no category in which prices have not increased year-on-year. And, unfortunately, we have to get used to it. Just a few months ago, the vast majority of analysts pointed to the end of summer holidays as the peak of inflation. In view of the factors that have emerged recently. , and this is especially the real threat of an energy crisis, this scenario is not very realistic,” said Tomasz Kopyściński, an economist from the WSB University in Wrocław.
Kopyściński predicts that at the turn of September and October this year. consumption will not fall yet, as demand in the country is still supported by the government’s protective measures – the inflation shield, carbon allowances and the 14th retirement pension. But the real test for consumer wallets will be the fourth quarter of this year, and above all, the beginning of 2023. Then, according to the expert, there will be a real risk that the spiral of increasing heating energy costs will force entrepreneurs to a new wave of price increases. In the absence of an increase in wages for employees – and this is unfortunately very likely, because many companies simply cannot afford it – this could lead to a sudden drop in consumer demand, the report indicates.
“Due to the end of the holiday season and the beginning of the fall-winter period, consumption will decline, and inflation itself will not directly affect consumer consumption, but a shift towards savings. We should still expect a further deterioration in prices in shops, however, they will not be They grew as fast as in the first half of this year. And these increases will not be double-digit, although the increases will apply to all categories. reduction of prices in stores, but this may happen in a year at the earliest,” forecasts Hubert Gąsiński from WSB University in Warsaw.
According to an expert from WSB in Wrocław, in August the situation in the world translated into another weakening of the zloty, which resulted in an increase in import costs, and thus was an impulse for price increases.
The report includes over 40,400 retail prices from over 40,600 stores belonging to 63 retail chains. The research covered all discount stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience and cash & carry chains that reach the majority of consumers in Poland with their offer.
Source: UCE, WSB and ISBnews
